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A new tax bill pushed by the Republican Party has ignited debate in the United States. It is touted as an initiative to provide "permanent tax cuts and bigger checks", according to the White House.
Experts warn that the biggest beneficiaries would be the highest earners, while low-income households could end up even worse off.
According to an analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), if the bill becomes law, households earning more than $1 million a year would see their net income increase by 4.3%.
This represents a significant gain over the 0.6% increase that the poorest 20% of Americans would receive: about $90 a year.
The Tax Policy Center came to a similar conclusion: the poorest 20% would gain that 0.6%, while the richest 20% would benefit from a 3.7% increase in their net income.
What about the poorest?
The Penn Wharton Budget Model warned that when cuts to social programs such as Medicaid and food stamps (SNAP) are also considered, households with incomes of up to $17,000 a year would actually lose about $1,035 in 2026.
In contrast, the richest 0.1%, who earn at least $4.3 million a year, would receive an average net benefit of $389,000 a year.
Despite this, the White House dismissed the criticism. A spokesman said that "MAGAnomics transcends conventional wisdom," and that experts are as wrong as they were with Trump-era tariffs.
The Republican plan seeks to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including new measures such as:
- Eliminate taxes on tips and overtime.
- Expand the standard deduction.
- Increase the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $30,000.
The tax-free tipping component would primarily benefit workers in occupations that are "traditionally tipped," such as waiters.
However, only those earning less than $160,000 a year would be eligible, and the actual benefits would be limited.
According to the Tax Policy Center, only 2% of households, mainly those with tipped workers, would benefit from an average cut of $1,800 a year.
However, more than a third of these workers do not even pay income tax, so they would not see any improvement.
Experts warn that tariffs promoted by the Trump istration could neutralize any benefits from tax cuts.
As low-income households spend more on imported staples, the price increases from tariffs could cost them an additional $100 a year, according to CBPP.
The fate of the project remains uncertain. Five Republicans blocked its progress in committee for not sufficiently reducing public spending, despite Trump's call to "get behind the proposal".
Even so, the measure is expected to eventually move to a full vote in the House of Representatives.