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- News. Science speaks: What would happen if an asteroid hit the Earth?
It is one of the most topical issues in recent weeks: the possible impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 with Earth in 2032. This asteroid has a diameter between 40 and 100 meters and has a current probability of collision with our planet of 2.3%. This has led the UN to activate the Planetary Security Protocol. Jose Maria Madiedo, astrophysicist and coordinator of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, spoke about what this asteroid could cause in an interview with 20minutos.
What has Madiedo said about 2024 YR4?
The evolution of the asteroid 2024 YR4 is being closely monitored, leading to estimates of the chances of impact. Madiedo refers to this: "The probabilities are changing because more observations of the asteroid are being made. It must be taken into that here the objective is to know as precisely as possible the orbit. The more it is observed, the more accurate the orbit will be. The probability of impact may increase as in 2004 with Apophis, but then this possibility was completely ruled out."
2024 YR4 is progressively moving away and the difficulties of observing it are increasing, but Madiedo talks about where it might fall: "It is too early to say.Its trajectory is not yet known with sufficient precision to establish in a solid way where it might fall. In March and May next year, the James Webb Telescope will make observations and we will know what to expect."
Another question that is up in the air is about the damage it could cause when it impacts our planet: "It would produce local devastation, an area not excessively large that could be the equivalent of a third of a Spanish province or something smaller than what could occupy the island of Gran Canaria approximately".
It is not the only one that has been discovered, as 234 new objects have been found on our planet that could impact with us at any time, but they are so small that they are not a problem, Madiedo details.