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The 2024/25 College Football Playoff (CFP) introduces the first-ever 12-team format, raising the stakes for every team involved. With more teams in the mix, the odds to win the national championship are tighter than ever. Powerhouse programs like Oregon, Texas, and Georgia were set among the favorites, but the larger playoff pool created opportunities for upsets, and with single-elimination matchups, anything can happen.
Notre Dame will meet Penn State in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night. Meanwhile Ohio State Buckeyes will take on Texas in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic.
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Odds for every team in the college football playoffs semifinals
Ohio State
- Odds and Line Movement: Ohio State opened as a 5-point favorite against Texas, with the line moving up to -6. This indicates increasing confidence in the Buckeyes' chances.
- Recent Performance: Their dominant 41-21 victory over Oregon in the quarterfinals solidifies their position as the title favorite (-110).
- FPI Projection: Ohio State is given a slight edge with a 54% probability to win against Texas.
- Overall Assessment: As the odds-on favorite and with strong recent performances, Ohio State appears most likely to advance to the National Championship.
Notre Dame
- Odds and Line Movement: Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Penn State, with the line moving to -2, showing moderate confidence in their ability to win.
- Recent Performance: Their defense proved critical in a solid win over Georgia, showcasing their ability to handle top-tier competition.
- FPI Projection: Notre Dame is projected to win by 1.7 points with a 55% probability of victory.
- Overall Assessment: With strong defensive performance and consistent results against AP top 25 teams, Notre Dame has a slight edge to reach the championship.
Texas
- Odds and Line Movement: Texas started as a 5-point underdog to Ohio State, with the line moving further against them to +6.
- Recent Performance: Their narrow double-overtime victory over Arizona State raises questions about their ability to dominate stronger teams.
- FPI Projection: Texas has a 46% chance of pulling off an upset, making them a less likely candidate to advance compared to Ohio State.
Penn State
- Odds and Line Movement: Penn State is a 2-point underdog against Notre Dame, reflecting skepticism about their chances.
- Recent Performance: A commanding win over Boise State highlights their potential, but their 1-2 record against AP top 25 teams is a concern.
- FPI Projection: Penn State has a 45% chance to win, slightly less favorable than Notre Dame's odds.
- Overall Assessment: While capable, Penn State appears to face an uphill battle to secure a championship berth.
What is the likeliest National Championship matchup?
Based on the odds, performance, and FPI projections, Ohio State vs. Notre Dame seems the most likely National Championship matchup for the 2024/25 season.