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The stage is set for a wild March Madness in women's college basketball. Yesterday, Selection Sunday finalized the brackets that will determine the 64 teams that will compete for a spot in the Final Four and the national championship at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, in early April. This year's top seeds are UCLA (30-2) - which earned the top seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history - South Carolina (30-3), Texas (31-3) and USC (28-3). They hold a slight advantage due to the historical trend that No. 1 seeds have been the most successful since 1982. Thirty-three national champions have come from the top seed, with 2024-25 South Carolina being the most recent. However, lower-seeded teams such as Duke, UConn, Notre Dame and TCU could pull off upsets against the No. 1 seeds, especially in a season in which, for only the sixth time in history, four different teams held the No. 1 ranking during the regular season.
Paige vs. Watkins Headlines the Elite Eight Round
Like every year, there are plenty of storylines to follow. The biggest question is whether projected first overall pick in the WNBA draft, Paige Bueckers, can sur her "predecessor," Caitlin Clark, by winning a national championship - something the Huskies haven't done since 2016. UConn is seeking its second straight Final Four appearance and 16th in the last 17 NCAA Tournaments. But now that the brackets are set, we know they'll have to get past top-seeded USC in the Elite Eight, where they'll face reigning national player of the year JuJu Watkins. Watkins and Bueckers met in the same Elite Eight round last year, with UConn winning 80-73 before falling to Clark and Iowa in the Final Four.
The two programs also met in Hartford in December, with the Trojans winning 72-70 behind a team-high 25 points from Watkins. But March games are different, and this matchup is already being dubbed an "early national championship" on social media. Watkins and Bueckers are the two most popular players in the NCAA this year, and their December matchup averaged 2.23 million viewers - the second-highest audience ever for a women's college basketball game on Fox. That game helped make this season's overall ratings the highest since the 2008-09 season, with 2.9 billion minutes of live women's college basketball consumed.
Last year's Elite Eight showdown between USC and UConn drew 6.7 million viewers on ESPN, despite UConn's injury woes and Watkins' status as a little-known freshman. Now, Bueckers is looking to end her college career with the ultimate accomplishment, while Watkins - who is averaging 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 combined steals and blocks per game - has already sured Caitlin Clark's scoring total for her first two NCAA seasons. She is on pace to break Clark's all-time NCAA scoring record, and a deep tournament run would further solidify her case for National Player of the Year. Unlike last season, when USC was upset by UConn, Watkins now has a new teammate in Stanford transfer Kiki Iriafen, a likely first-round WNBA Draft pick and the team's best defensive player.
While their Elite Eight showdown seems inevitable, both teams still have three rounds to go before this potential blockbuster. If the matchup happens, it could draw a similar number of viewers (12.3 million) as last year's Iowa-LSU game in the same round, which featured Clark and Angel Reese, the tournament's biggest stars. This time, the biggest stars are Bueckers and Watkins.
The Road to a Bueckers vs. Watkins Showdown
For USC, which hasn't won a national title since 1984, the first round appears to be a formality against UNC Greensboro. In the second round, they would face either No. 8 California or No. 9 Mississippi State. A potential Sweet 16 matchup could be against No. 5 Kansas State or No. 4 Kentucky. Then, of course, the toughest possible Elite Eight opponent for USC would be UConn.
UConn also has a tough road to the Elite Eight, but experience and a hunger to win after a decade-long championship drought could propel them forward. They start with No. 15 seed Arkansas State, which is making its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. Then they'd face either No. 7 Oklahoma State or No. 10 South Dakota State - a team that lost just three games this season, its fewest since 2008-09, and entered March Madness on a 19-game winning streak, making it a Cinderella candidate. A Sweet 16 matchup could feature No. 3 seed Oklahoma, or maybe even Iowa - though, of course, Iowa is no longer led by Caitlin Clark. Still, a UConn-Iowa matchup would be an exciting rematch of last year's Final Four thriller.