The data says Nintendo will eat Xbox and PlayStation, but... what if the future is something else?

"There is no room for more than two major consoles". A week ago, market research firm DFC Intelligence concluded that 2025 would be a tough year for console sales.

This information emerged a week ago, when it was revealed that with the launch of Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation or Xbox would have no chance of occupying a third position with real relevance.

Therefore, those that do not manage to position themselves well for next year will have very low sales, as a good part of these will fall on Nintendo's new system. In a way, this is something that many of us could have foreseen.

However, it is not the same for us to say it as for a company specialized in market analysis to say it. The problem is that this situation would not only occur in 2025, but would extend (at least) until 2028.

Three's a crowd: Xbox or PlayStation left out

According to DFC Intelligence, Nintendo's new entertainment system will dominate the market with an iron fist, while the other major consoles (Xbox and PlayStation) will have to fight for second place.

They also claim that PlayStation (and its possible PS6) would be in a much more advantageous position, as it has a "more loyal" player base and has more powerful IPs. This is the general summary, although the subject is more complex.

In fact, although one of these consoles will suffer, the industry will grow again. "Over the past three decades, the video game industry has grown more than 20-fold and, after two years of declining hardware and software sales, it is poised to resume growth at a healthy pace through the end of the decade," said David Cole, founder of the company, as reported by VGC.

He also explained that releases such as GTA 6 will make 2025 a great year for the industry and that this year will again mark an "upward trajectory," but with negative notes in the "console war" for a company that will lag far behind the others.

Xbox is on the losing end, but they're ready

Based on this, it is logical to infer that Xbox is the worst positioned. This is where I ask you a question: do they really care? I would say no, because Microsoft's strategy changed some time ago.

For a few years, Phil Spencer and company were very committed to the console market. However, for months now, we have seen how they changed direction. In other words, they no longer bet so much on Xbox as such.

Surely you have seen some of the many campaigns of the brand with the slogan "Play Anywhere". In one way or another, Xbox has enhanced cloud gaming through Xbox Cloud Gaming and reinforced its commitment to Game .

To be honest, I think it's a very clever strategy on their part. While I don't think they will abandon the console market altogether, betting on another route is a smart move.

Especially since streaming services continue to grow in popularity, so becoming the total benchmark in this market within the video game industry is no joke. What's more, cloud gaming is also growing.

It is increasingly common for a large part of the community to spend their gaming time on other devices, with the mobile phone being one of the strongest. If you manage to conquer it through cloud gaming, your gaming community can be huge.

With this on the table, it's not that Xbox is going to be left out of the fight for second place with Nintendo, but that it is going to go in a different direction, just as the Japanese did in their day.

This is why, although I agree with the statement that there is no room for three consoles, I believe that there is more than enough room for Xbox, Nintendo and PlayStation to coexist with each other. Each in their own way, but at the same time.

PlayStation is also changing

Xbox is not the only one adapting to the new times. Sony, who previously did not want to see the PC market at all, has radically changed its strategy. Now it is normal that after two or three years we see its console exclusives on PC.

This was unthinkable before, but not anymore. Now they cannot ignore their community, especially with the predictions of this firm. It would be logical that Sony already knows that things are going to change, being one of the reasons why they have already started with this migration.

This leaves us with a very interesting (theoretical) situation. On the one hand, we have Nintendo, the most classic console in its concept: exclusives within an almost closed ecosystem whose boundary is marked by the cartridge.

Next up is PlayStation, which could become a hybrid of exclusive console twinned with PC that seeks to please two communities. Last but not least, Xbox, which would take to the extreme the idea of "all for one, one for all".

With its strategy, it could reach players from all over the world and from almost every market, extending its brand beyond the console market and becoming something like the super Netflix of video games.

It would be the one that would allow everyone to play many different things without needing a great PC or console, satisfying the needs of a good handful of players who, for one reason or another, do not want or cannot access another platform.

In summary, Nintendo will be the traditional console, PlayStation will take over from Xbox and become the console-PC benchmark, and Microsoft will put the console market aside and become a services and video games company.