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- Fantasy Football. Potential RB busts that won't outperform their ADP
The 2023 NFL season is less than a month away, with preseason in full swing. Fantasy football drafts will run rampant through August, so it's important to know which players could turn out to be risky endeavors.
The wide receiver position is arguably the most important in fantasy football, particularly in PPR leagues. Here are three receivers who cost plenty to draft but may end up not paying off.
DK Metcalf: 3.10 ADP, WR17 (37.0)
DK Metcalf has been extremely productive through four NFL seasons, but his yards per reception numbers have lowered dramatically the last two years. He hasn't been used as a deep threat as much, which has capped his overall ceiling. In 2022 with a resurgent Geno Smith as his quarterback, Metcalf finished as the WR26 in fantasy points per game, while teammate Tyler Lockett was WR17.
Despite that, Metcalf is being drafted well ahead of Lockett. It's hard to envision Smith having the same type of efficient season again given his previous track record. Seattle also drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20th overall to provide another receiving threat. Metcalf will have to score a lot of touchdowns to cash in on his draft position.
Keenan Allen: 4.09 ADP, WR20 (47.8)
Some alarms are ringing for Keenan Allen heading into 2023. He missed seven games last season with a harsh hamstring injury, although he rebounded to finish very strong. Soft tissue injuries tend to accumulate as players' bodies age, and Allen turned 31 in April.
The Chargers also added target competition in the offseason by drafting Quentin Johnston in the first round. Mike Williams is still there, Josh Palmer is heading into his third season, Gerald Everett has a year in L.A. under his belt and Austin Ekeler will continue to soak up short targets. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore liked to spread the ball around during his time in Dallas, so Allen might not be the target hog he has been in the past.
Christian Watson: 5.07 ADP, WR24
Christian Watson's rookie season was a rollercoaster, but the final eight games have fantasy managers clamoring for more. He was uber-efficient, particularly from Weeks 10-13 where he scored eight touchdowns on just 17 touches. He went for over 100 yards in three of those final eight games and showcased game-breaking ability.
But there is plenty to be concerned about. That extreme efficiency is bound to regress to the mean. We saw it with Deebo Samuel from 2021 to 2022. Watson also lost Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback and will be catching es from an inexperienced Jordan Love. Watson is definitely an ascending player, but he's shaping up as more boom-or-bust than what you want from a WR2.